Sam Altman shares bold predictions about AGI during the DealBook Summit, claiming it’s coming sooner than many anticipate. This video covers Altman’s remarks, including OpenAI’s progress on AGI, updated user stats for ChatGPT, and insights into OpenAI’s evolving relationship with Microsoft. The discussion also covers OpenAI’s defense partnership and the highly anticipated “12 Days of Shipmas” announcement series.
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Sam Alman says that AGI is coming faster Than we think and also gives us a slew Of updated numbers about open AI welcome Back to the AI Daily Brief well I fear That we may be having quite a bit of Open AI talk coming up yesterday Sam Alman tweeted starting tomorrow we are Doing 12 days of open AI each weekday we Will have a live stream with a launcher Demo some big ones and some stocking Stuffers we've got some great stuff to Share hope you enjoy Merry Christmas I'll come back in a minute to what People think might be coming from that But where I actually want to start is With a really interesting conversation Between Sam Alman and Andrew Ross sorin At the New York Times dealbook Summit Yesterday there were a bunch of really Fascinating parts of the conversation Including some new numbers for chat gbt Revealed as well as maybe the most Notable part which is how Altman thinks About the coming of AGI the tldr is that Altman thinks that AGI is coming a lot Faster than we think but maybe less Impactful than we think he said my guess Is we will hit AGI sooner than than most People in the world think and it matters Much less AGI can get built the world Mostly goes on in mostly the same way The economy grows faster but then there Is a long continuation from what we call AGI to what we call Super intelligence
Last month Alman Saidi believes his Company will achieve AGI next year and These comments suggest he thinks open AI Is still on course the big question Though is how exactly does open aai and Alman Define AGI an early version of the Company charter said AGI would be able To quote automate the great majority of Intellectual labor now it seems that the Definition is a little fuzzier and Somewhat less one of the reasons this Matters is that open AI can end their Deal with Microsoft once their board Declares that AGI has been achieved The Verge recently reported that the goal Seems to be to combine the forthcoming Orion or gbt 5 model with the 01 Reasoning model to create a more Powerful model that can be labeled AGI Adding more Credence to the idea that Alman's definition of AGI is now more Modest he added I expect the economic Disruption to take a little longer than People think because there's a lot of Inertia in society so in the first Couple of years maybe not that much Changes and then maybe a lot changes in The economy it may be that the Civilization changing AI which can end The need for human work is what Alman Has been referring to now as super Intelligence Alman wrote back in September that super intelligence could Be achieved within a few thousand days a
Much less certain timeline and notably While Alman was optimistic that they're Close he did not give the impression That open AI has AGI waiting in the Wings almost ready to deploy he said There's a ton of hard work a ton of Research and Engineering still to do but I think it's possible the other big Topic from the interview was the Prospect of political contribution from Elon Musk so far musk has been fighting Open AI in the courts but there's a Growing concern that he will use his Newly found political influence to Stifle alman's plans discussing the Prospect that musk could send the force Of the government against open aai Alin Said I believe pretty strongly that Elon Will do the right thing and that it Would be profoundly unamerican to use Political power to the degree that Elon Would hurt competitors and Advantage his Own businesses I don't think people Would tolerate that and I don't think Elon would do it Alman also remarked That he was quote tremendously sad about The simmering tension between the pair Of onetime time co-founders commenting I Grew up with Elon as like a mega hero I Thought what Elon was doing was Absolutely incredible for the world at a Time when most of the world was not Thinking very ambitiously he pushed a Lot of people me included to think much
More ambitiously and I have different Feelings about him now but I'm glad he Exists reflecting on what is driving Elon to go after open AI in this way Alman seems to think it's purely about Business rivalry adding he really cares About being the guy he's a competitor And we're doing well there was also a Lengthy discussion about the conversion Of open a into a for-profit company Alman confirmed that the decision was Made in part because musk caught off Funding but didn't elaborate on the Events that led to the situation he Denied reports that open aai had sought To block investors from also investing In rival companies Alman also discussed His lack of equity in the company Stating I wish I had taken some given How big all of this is it almost passed Without notice that chbt usage has Exploded Alman claimed that the platform Now sees 300 million weekly active users Basically the equivalent of a major Portion of the entire United States is Using chat gbt every week they're Sending a billion messages daily and 1.3 Million developers in the us alone are Building on the platform in the context Of the abnormally fast scaling Altman Noted that the company requires far more Compute than they had projected and on The rumors that the relationship with Microsoft had become Frosty he admitted
To some tension but said that the two Companies were still pretty aligned on Their incentives and are not in the Middle of disentangling one other Interesting story around open aai that Isn't about their ship Miss which was Where we'll end this episode the company Assigned a partnership with andoral Industries to build anti-drone defense Systems this is open ai's first time Working with a commercial weapons Manufacturer and comes a month after They first signal their Newfound Willingness to work on Military Tech the Company still prohibits the use of its Technology on offensive weapons but has Become increasingly comfortable Contracting with the defense department On cyber security and administrative Work the current cop of Silicon Valley Startups is undeniably more willing to View Tech as an integral part of National Defense and something they Should be taking in active roll in last Month anthropic signed a deal with paler To provide their models for classified Document analysis and anti- drone Systems are designed to track unmanned Aircraft and then shut them down using Electronic jamming response drones or Other means anderol said that open AI Tech could improve accuracy and reduce The time to detection and response Putting fewer People In Harm's Way
Pretty interesting one that I think says A lot about the shifting mood of Silicon Valley lastly let's talk about 12 days Of shipus an announcement tweet promised 12 daily live streams and a bunch of new Things big in small The Verge reported That the stocking stuffers will include An assortment of new features products And demos and sources say that the big Reveals will be a new reasoning model And the long- awaited release of the Textto video model Sora it seems that Some ship Miss Cheer will also be Brought to the company's existing Products AI news aggregator B tore found Code enabling a new Christmas edition Voice for chat chubbt complete with a Snowflake symbol to activate voice mode Tibor is referring to it as Santa GPT so Perhaps you'll be able to chat with open Eyes version of Jolly Old St Nick for What it's worth this is something that I Have already done with my kids asking One of chat PT's existing voices to Imitate Santa to announce as we turned On our holiday lights overall the team At open aai seems to be very excited About this Chief product officer Kevin Wheel tweeted this is going to be wild And crazy and a lot of fun ship Miss is Coming investor vard kosa wrote excited For open AI 12 days of shipus the AI World will again feel different by the New year we of course got a bunch of
Predictions data scientist Diego wrote Day one launch of Sora day two Introduction of a santa inspired voice For Chachi BT day three enhancement of Chachi BT's advanced voice mode with Vision and then he went on to make a Bunch of predictions as well one small One which would be big would be a new do Model to the extent that there is any Skepticism it's that some think that if The announcements aren't really big this Is all going to feel like a bit of a wet Blanket lisano Gabe writes I think I'm Speaking for most AI nerds when I say if Open AI doesn't release GPT 4.5 or demo GPT 5 this 12-day event will be a huge Waste of time and could really screw Open ai's public perception we already Know that Sora 01 price Cuts in AVM are Coming because you promised us months Ago give us a Christmas surprise or pack Your stuff if you make all this hype and Don't deliver I think as an investor I Would rather bet my chips on Claude Gemini grock deep seek and quen for my Part I do not think we're going to see GPT 4.5 or GPT 5 alond has been pretty Clear that that is not coming this year However I think a lot of people will be Pretty excited if Sora actually comes to Bear and as for the rest of it well We'll just have to wait and see for now Though that is going to do it for Today's AI Daily Brief until next time
Peace